Kalifornsky, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXAK68 PAFC 150021
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

A shortwave trough extending off a broad upper low centered in the
Chukchi Sea is beginning to dig across Southcentral Alaska this
afternoon. At the same time, the trough axis is shifting east,
spreading cooler, drier air into the western half of Southcentral.
Scattered to numerous showers in the Mat-Su Valleys this afternoon
sweep east through tonight, with surface heating over Anchorage
and the Kenai Peninsula leading to enough instability for a
stratocumulus deck but seeming to be insufficient for more than a
few isolated areas of sprinkles. Cooler air moving in behind the
trough and a building surface ridge over the eastern Bering Sea
lead to increasing northwesterly gap winds tonight. Winds through
Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal increase to at least small
craft criteria, with some potential for marginal gales by Friday.
Gales will be sustained out of Kamishak Gap and through the Barren
Islands. Valdez also sees gusty northerly winds as colder air
works into the Copper Basin at lower levels of the atmosphere.
Near surface instability may also contribute to a surprisingly
breezy Friday afternoon and evening for inland areas as well.
Along the Southcentral coast, including Kodiak, offshore flow will
lead to warmer days with highs in the mid 60s to potentially low
70s.

East of the trough axis, easterly flow brings moisture into the
Copper River Basin beginning Friday, with precipitation primarily
focused in the upslope areas of the western basin and the eastern
slopes of the Wrangell Mountains. However, the aforementioned
instability near the surface will likely allow for some showers to
work into the Copper Valley. Friday night, a strong shortwave
brings the best chance for the Copper Valley to see rainfall. This
pattern of gap winds and precipitation for the Copper Basin hold
through Saturday with continued cold air advection and a moderate
pressure gradient. Winds begin to diminish Saturday night as high
pressure over the Bering Sea begins to nudge in over mainland
Alaska. By Sunday, the Copper Basin dries out and temperatures
trend warmer across Southcentral.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Thursday to Saturday)...

Winds are beginning to pick up this afternoon for the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as a pressure gradient induced
northwest flow begins to set up shop across the region. Models are
in good agreement that an area of high pressure across the
southern Bering and Aleutian Chain will strengthen and a low in
the Gulf of Alaska will deepen heading into the weekend, which
will act to greatly enhance these winds.

The main weather story for Friday and this weekend will be strong
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula gap winds starting
tomorrow as high pressure continues to build southeastward across
the Aleutians and a low in the Gulf of Alaska deepens further.
This will result in a period of reinforced gap winds beginning
Friday and continuing into the weekend. Widespread wind gusts
ranging from 35 to 45 knots are expected during this time frame
with isolated gusts to 50 knots. The greatest chance of small
craft advisory and gale force warning winds is expected in the
gaps in the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.

A less impactful aspect of the period of strong winds will be
cold air advection that is ushered in from the northwest. 850 mb
temperature anomalies suggest temperatures for Southwest Alaska
and the Alaska Peninsula will be several degrees below average.
Chances of showers will accompany these strong gusts too as waves
of moisture move around and east of the high pressure. Widespread
fog and low stratus will persist across the Aleutians and Bering
through the weekend. Guidance suggests that gap winds try to relax
on Sunday as pressure gradient forcing weakens and more seasonal
temperatures return to the area.


-AM/DJ


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Forecast models are in reasonable agreement with the general
picture for the weekend. High pressure is forecast to remain over
the Bering while a southeastward moving wave of low pressure from
the northern Gulf and Southcentral phases with a broader area of
troughing that settles across the Southeast Alaska Panhandle.

Resultant tightening of the pressure gradient between high
pressure and low pressure will promote prolonged northwesterly
flow through the western Alaska Range and contribute to gusty gap
winds, especially through Kodiak Island and the Barren Islands.

An embedded shortwave within the ridge over the Bering, could
bring light showers and breezy conditions across the Eastern
Bering Sea and the Alaska Peninsula for Monday and Tuesday.
Southwest Alaska could also see light showers along higher
elevations. Otherwise, expect the potential for foggy and cloudy
conditions possible across much of the Bering Sea. In the far
western Bering, a front arrives Monday afternoon with the
potential for showers and gusty south to southwest winds. At this
time, the front weakens as it progresses into midweek and the high
pressure ridge remains in place.

-BL/Rux


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds will persist this afternoon and evening with
vicinity showers and VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds will
gradually increase across the terminal beginning Friday morning.
By Friday afternoon and evening though, winds become gusty to
around 20 kts. This will likely be part of a prolonged weather
pattern that could linger through the rest of this weekend.

&&


$$